NHL Markets Desk

Use for "NHL predictions tonight" and "Stanley Cup odds". Tonight's NHL games on Kalshi — moneyline, puck line, totals, period markets — as Market · Model · Fair, starting goalies checked first. market=goals: anytime and first-goal contracts; market=futures: Cup, conference and division markets on Kalshi and Polymarket (international book) vs a 10,000-season sim. Free.

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "market": {
      "description": "game = tonight's board; goals = player goals; futures = Stanley Cup and season markets. One of: game · goals · futures.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "game",
            "goals",
            "futures"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "team": {
      "description": "Optional NHL club to filter — code (CAR, EDM, LAK), Kalshi code (LA, TB), nickname (\"Oilers\") or city (\"Edmonton\").",
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 40
    },
    "limit": {
      "description": "Max rows (default 16).",
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string",
        "null"
      ]
    }
  }
}

Use for "how accurate is your model" and "what's your track record". Every graded PredictionMarketsPicks signal per engine (bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, weather, NHL) and the daily editorial call (POTD): W-L, net P/L, a 95% win-rate range and the current model era, and the NFL model's 2026 live record (published game positions and prop PLAYs) beside its backtest. WATCH calls are reported apart.

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "lane": {
      "description": "Optional lane: bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, weather, nhl, potd, nfl — or an engine slug. Omit for every lane.",
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 40
    }
  }
}

Use for "where is the arbitrage" and "Kalshi vs Polymarket price gaps". Cross-venue gaps on the same NFL, NBA, NHL or MLB game: Kalshi against Polymarket US (the exchange US traders use, fees included), Polymarket international as a reference. Gap in pp, WATCH/ARB signal, cheaper venue, settlement_match; near misses when nothing clears. Free: the top 3 gaps in full; Pro returns the whole board.

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "minGap": {
      "description": "Minimum gap in percentage points to include (default 3 = WATCH threshold).",
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ]
    }
  }
}

Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "marketPrice": {
      "description": "Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ]
    },
    "yourProbability": {
      "description": "Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ]
    }
  }
}

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "tell_user": {
      "description": "Show this sentence to the user first.",
      "type": "string"
    },
    "timestamp": {
      "type": "string"
    },
    "data_freshness": {},
    "sources": {},
    "needs_input": {},
    "example_call": {},
    "edge_pct": {
      "description": "Expected-value edge, %."
    },
    "edge_pp": {
      "description": "Your probability minus the price, pp."
    },
    "signal": {
      "description": "BUY / SELL / SKIP."
    },
    "interpretation": {
      "description": "Plain-English read."
    },
    "market_price_cents": {
      "description": "Price used, cents."
    },
    "your_probability_pct": {
      "description": "Probability used, %."
    }
  },
  "additionalProperties": {}
}

Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "winProbability": {
      "description": "Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ]
    },
    "marketPrice": {
      "description": "Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ]
    },
    "bankroll": {
      "description": "Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure.",
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ]
    },
    "fraction": {
      "description": "Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "full",
            "half",
            "quarter",
            "eighth"
          ]
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "winProbability",
    "marketPrice"
  ]
}

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "tell_user": {
      "description": "Show this sentence to the user first.",
      "type": "string"
    },
    "timestamp": {
      "type": "string"
    },
    "data_freshness": {},
    "sources": {},
    "needs_input": {},
    "example_call": {},
    "stake_dollars": {
      "description": "Suggested stake in dollars (when a bankroll was given)."
    },
    "full_kelly_pct": {
      "description": "Full-Kelly fraction of bankroll, %."
    },
    "applied_fraction_pct": {
      "description": "The fraction applied, %."
    },
    "rating": {
      "description": "Qualitative read of the sizing."
    }
  },
  "additionalProperties": {}
}

Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "value": {
      "description": "The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format.",
      "type": [
        "number",
        "string"
      ]
    },
    "format": {
      "description": "Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "probability",
            "american",
            "decimal"
          ]
        }
      ]
    }
  }
}

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "tell_user": {
      "description": "Show this sentence to the user first.",
      "type": "string"
    },
    "timestamp": {
      "type": "string"
    },
    "data_freshness": {},
    "sources": {},
    "needs_input": {},
    "example_call": {},
    "probability_pct": {
      "description": "Implied probability, %."
    },
    "american_odds": {
      "description": "American odds, no commas."
    },
    "decimal_odds": {
      "description": "Decimal odds."
    }
  },
  "additionalProperties": {}
}