Weather Markets Edge Desk

Read the edge alerts our models generate on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, and mispricings — as a live feed. Each alert carries feed, tier (SPECULATIVE/MODERATE/STRONG), side, price in cents, model probability, edge in percentage points, and a Kalshi market link. A Pro key returns the feed in real time; without a key you get the same feed delayed 24 hours with the thesis stripped. Every subscriber receives the identical, impersonal feed at the same time — the signals are not tailored to any individual. Filters (feed, min_tier, since) SELECT which alerts you see; they never change the signal content. Use for "any edge on Kalshi", "weather trade signals", "latest mispricings". Impersonal market analysis for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Trade responsibly.

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "feed": {
      "description": "Comma-separated feeds to include: weather, bitcoin, silver, gold, oil, mispricing, sports_arb, nfl. Omit for all.",
      "type": "string"
    },
    "min_tier": {
      "description": "Minimum confidence tier (returns that tier and above).",
      "type": "string",
      "enum": [
        "SPECULATIVE",
        "MODERATE",
        "STRONG"
      ]
    },
    "since": {
      "description": "ISO-8601 timestamp — only alerts created after it.",
      "type": "string"
    },
    "limit": {
      "default": 25,
      "description": "Max alerts to return (default 25).",
      "type": "integer",
      "minimum": 1,
      "maximum": 100
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "value": {
      "description": "The numeric value to convert. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\").",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "format": {
      "description": "Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "probability",
            "american",
            "decimal"
          ]
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "value",
    "format"
  ],
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

Compare a market price against the historical base rate for a class of events and get the gap in percentage points plus a signal and sample-size quality. Pass either a known base-rate id (one of: incumbent_reelected, fed_hold_unemp_below_4, fed_cut_cpi_above_3, recession_called_12mo, sp500_positive_year, bitcoin_above_100k_eoy, gdp_growth_above_2, cpi_above_3, senate_incumbent_wins_primary, vix_below_20_eoy, interest_rate_cut_next_meeting, major_sports_upset) or your own baseRateValue. Use for "how does this price compare to history", "is the market ignoring the base rate", "historical frequency vs market".

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "marketPrice": {
      "description": "Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "baseRateId": {
      "description": "Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source).",
      "type": "string",
      "enum": [
        "incumbent_reelected",
        "fed_hold_unemp_below_4",
        "fed_cut_cpi_above_3",
        "recession_called_12mo",
        "sp500_positive_year",
        "bitcoin_above_100k_eoy",
        "gdp_growth_above_2",
        "cpi_above_3",
        "senate_incumbent_wins_primary",
        "vix_below_20_eoy",
        "interest_rate_cut_next_meeting",
        "major_sports_upset"
      ]
    },
    "baseRateValue": {
      "description": "Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given.",
      "type": "number",
      "minimum": 0,
      "maximum": 100
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "marketPrice"
  ],
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "prior": {
      "description": "Prior probability the hypothesis is true, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "evidence": {
      "description": "One or more evidence items, applied in order. Each item needs likelihoodIfTrue and likelihoodIfFalse on the 0–100 scale, e.g. [{ \"likelihoodIfTrue\": 80, \"likelihoodIfFalse\": 20 }]. A single item may be sent as one object.",
      "minItems": 1,
      "type": "array",
      "items": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "label": {
            "description": "Optional short caption for this evidence. Defaults to \"Evidence 1\", \"Evidence 2\", …",
            "type": "string"
          },
          "likelihoodIfTrue": {
            "description": "P(observing this evidence | hypothesis is true), in % (0–100). Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"3\", \"3pp\", \"3%\").",
            "anyOf": [
              {
                "type": "number"
              },
              {
                "type": "string"
              }
            ]
          },
          "likelihoodIfFalse": {
            "description": "P(observing this evidence | hypothesis is false), in % (0–100). Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"3\", \"3pp\", \"3%\").",
            "anyOf": [
              {
                "type": "number"
              },
              {
                "type": "string"
              }
            ]
          }
        },
        "required": [
          "likelihoodIfTrue",
          "likelihoodIfFalse"
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "prior"
  ],
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

Calculate the expected-value edge on a Kalshi or Polymarket prediction-market contract. Given the current market price (in cents, i.e. the implied probability) and your own probability estimate, returns the % edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP signal with a plain-English read. Use for "is this contract mispriced", "what is my edge", "should I take this position". From the PredictionMarketsPicks desk, which publishes a settled per-engine record — every signal graded against the market that priced it, wins and losses both: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "marketPrice": {
      "description": "Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "yourProbability": {
      "description": "Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "marketPrice",
    "yourProbability"
  ],
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "winProbability": {
      "description": "Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "marketPrice": {
      "description": "Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "bankroll": {
      "description": "Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"1000\", \"$1,000\").",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "fraction": {
      "default": "half",
      "description": "Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default.",
      "type": "string",
      "enum": [
        "full",
        "half",
        "quarter",
        "eighth"
      ]
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "winProbability",
    "marketPrice"
  ],
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}