Commodities Markets Desk

Use for "what is the ETH 15-minute market doing" and "which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open". Every Kalshi 15-minute up-or-down series — crypto, metals, energy, FX — with window status, YES price, close time, target price, what it settles on and the up rate over the last 96 windows. Pass series ("eth", "KXBTC15M") or asset_class. Free, no key.

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "series": {
      "description": "One series: ticker (KXETH15M) or asset (\"eth\", \"gold\", \"euro\").",
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 40
    },
    "asset_class": {
      "description": "crypto · commodity · currency · all (default all).",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "crypto",
            "commodity",
            "currency",
            "all"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "open_only": {
      "description": "Only series with a window open right now (default false).",
      "type": "boolean"
    },
    "limit": {
      "description": "Max rows (default 30). Values above 40 are clamped to 40.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "anyOf": [
            {
              "type": "number"
            },
            {
              "type": "string"
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "type": "null"
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "tell_user": {
      "description": "Show this sentence to the user first.",
      "type": "string"
    },
    "timestamp": {
      "type": "string"
    },
    "data_freshness": {},
    "sources": {},
    "needs_input": {},
    "example_call": {},
    "rows": {
      "description": "Kalshi 15-minute series: window status, YES price, close time, target, settlement source, up rate."
    },
    "as_of": {
      "description": "When the board was read."
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "additionalProperties": {}
}

Use for "Kalshi perps funding rate" and "how much leverage on Kalshi gold perps". Every Kalshi perpetual future: price, 24h volume, open interest, max leverage long and short, funding cadence, and what funding has cost a long since launch. Pass asset ("btc", "gold") for one. Free, no key.

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "asset": {
      "description": "One perp: symbol or name (\"btc\", \"gold\", \"XAG\").",
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 30
    },
    "limit": {
      "description": "Max rows (default 25). Values above 30 are clamped to 30.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "anyOf": [
            {
              "type": "number"
            },
            {
              "type": "string"
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "type": "null"
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "tell_user": {
      "description": "Show this sentence to the user first.",
      "type": "string"
    },
    "timestamp": {
      "type": "string"
    },
    "data_freshness": {},
    "sources": {},
    "needs_input": {},
    "example_call": {},
    "rows": {
      "description": "Kalshi perps: price, 24h volume, open interest, max leverage, funding."
    },
    "as_of": {
      "description": "When the board was read."
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "additionalProperties": {}
}

Use for "where does a 5x bitcoin long liquidate on Kalshi". Estimates a Kalshi perp's liquidation price and the % move to it from Kalshi's risk parameters (a 5x BTC long is about 8% away, not the 20% the 100÷leverage rule implies), plus fees and expected funding. An estimate; Kalshi's app shows the exact one. Assets: btc, eth, sol, xrp, doge, hype, link, gold, silver, platinum, palladium. Free.

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "asset": {
      "description": "The perp. One of: btc · eth · sol · xrp · doge · hype · link · gold · silver · platinum · palladium.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "btc",
            "eth",
            "sol",
            "xrp",
            "doge",
            "hype",
            "link",
            "gold",
            "silver",
            "platinum",
            "palladium"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "side": {
      "description": "Direction. One of: long · short.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "long",
            "short"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "leverage": {
      "description": "Leverage, e.g. 5 or \"5x\". Capped at Kalshi’s maximum for the size and side.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "margin": {
      "description": "Margin in dollars (default 1000). Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\").",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "entry": {
      "description": "Entry price (default: the live price). Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\").",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "hold_days": {
      "default": 7,
      "description": "Days held, for the funding estimate (default 7).",
      "type": "number",
      "minimum": 0,
      "maximum": 365
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "asset",
    "side",
    "leverage"
  ],
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

Use for "gold edge today" and "oil or bitcoin trade signal". The Kalshi daily gold, silver or WTI strike, or hourly bitcoin strike, with the largest PMP model edge, as a ticket: side, entry price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge, tier and quarter-Kelly size. Pass tickers[] to check a watchlist. Pro — sign in with PredictionMarketsPicks, or a Pro API key.

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "commodity": {
      "description": "Which commodity edge to read (needed for a real answer). One of: silver · bitcoin · gold · oil.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "silver",
            "bitcoin",
            "gold",
            "oil"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "tickers": {
      "description": "Optional Kalshi ticker watchlist (up to 25) — e.g. paste the tickers from your Kalshi Pro screener or Canvas to get PMP's edge on exactly those markets. Full market or 3-segment event tickers both work. Tickers PMP doesn't model are returned as not_covered (never a fabricated edge).",
      "type": "array",
      "items": {
        "type": "string"
      }
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

The US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime plus the six category scores (growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment). The composite and the regime call are free without a key, always, along with 2 category scores; one email returns 4 and Pro returns all six. Use for "how is the US economy", "macro regime", "risk-on or risk-off".

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "topic": {
      "default": "macro",
      "description": "macro = the US macro-health composite (the only topic).",
      "type": "string",
      "enum": [
        "macro"
      ]
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "value": {
      "description": "The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\").",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "format": {
      "description": "Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "probability",
            "american",
            "decimal"
          ]
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "tell_user": {
      "description": "Show this sentence to the user first.",
      "type": "string"
    },
    "timestamp": {
      "type": "string"
    },
    "data_freshness": {},
    "sources": {},
    "needs_input": {},
    "example_call": {},
    "probability_pct": {
      "description": "Implied probability, %."
    },
    "american_odds": {
      "description": "American odds, no commas."
    },
    "decimal_odds": {
      "description": "Decimal odds."
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "additionalProperties": {}
}

Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read. Free, no key. Every PMP engine signal is graded in public: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "marketPrice": {
      "description": "Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "yourProbability": {
      "description": "Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "tell_user": {
      "description": "Show this sentence to the user first.",
      "type": "string"
    },
    "timestamp": {
      "type": "string"
    },
    "data_freshness": {},
    "sources": {},
    "needs_input": {},
    "example_call": {},
    "edge_pct": {
      "description": "Expected-value edge, %."
    },
    "edge_pp": {
      "description": "Your probability minus the price, pp."
    },
    "signal": {
      "description": "BUY / SELL / SKIP."
    },
    "interpretation": {
      "description": "Plain-English read."
    },
    "market_price_cents": {
      "description": "Price used, cents."
    },
    "your_probability_pct": {
      "description": "Probability used, %."
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "additionalProperties": {}
}

Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "winProbability": {
      "description": "Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "marketPrice": {
      "description": "Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "bankroll": {
      "description": "Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"1000\", \"$1,000\").",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "fraction": {
      "default": "half",
      "description": "Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default.",
      "type": "string",
      "enum": [
        "full",
        "half",
        "quarter",
        "eighth"
      ]
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "winProbability",
    "marketPrice"
  ],
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "tell_user": {
      "description": "Show this sentence to the user first.",
      "type": "string"
    },
    "timestamp": {
      "type": "string"
    },
    "data_freshness": {},
    "sources": {},
    "needs_input": {},
    "example_call": {},
    "stake_dollars": {
      "description": "Suggested stake in dollars (when a bankroll was given)."
    },
    "full_kelly_pct": {
      "description": "Full-Kelly fraction of bankroll, %."
    },
    "applied_fraction_pct": {
      "description": "The fraction applied, %."
    },
    "rating": {
      "description": "Qualitative read of the sizing."
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "additionalProperties": {}
}