Russia–NATO risk ladder
Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.
Should I use this
Quality & Safety
Findings (1)
- LOWTool 'get_changelog' description lacks action verbin get_changelog
Based on automated analysis of tool definitions and protocol compliance.
Context Cost
This is the approximate number of tokens consumed each time the server's tools are loaded into a model's context. Higher counts reduce the attention available for other tasks.
Install
One-Click Install
Add this to your `claude_desktop_config.json` file:
{
"mcpServers": {
"risk-ladder": {
"url": "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp"
}
}
}Remote endpoints
https://mcp.russianato.site/mcpstreamable-httpWhat it can do
Tool inventory
Tools (8)
🟢get_overview(lang)
Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance (published / model / manual).
Input Schema
{
"type": "object",
"properties": {
"lang": {
"type": "string",
"enum": [
"en",
"ru",
"de",
"es",
"fr"
],
"description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}🟢get_risk_ladder(date, scenario, hybrid_pct, regional_share_pct, wide_share_pct, ...)
Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions.
Input Schema
{
"type": "object",
"properties": {
"date": {
"type": "string",
"description": "YYYY-MM-DD; default = data date (as_of)"
},
"scenario": {
"description": "optimistic | baseline | pessimistic, or a number from -1 to 1",
"anyOf": [
{
"type": "string",
"enum": [
"optimistic",
"baseline",
"pessimistic"
]
},
{
"type": "number",
"minimum": -1,
"maximum": 1
}
]
},
"hybrid_pct": {
"type": "number",
"description": "What-if: annual probability of a destructive hybrid attack, %",
"minimum": 1,
"maximum": 99
},
"regional_share_pct": {
"type": "number",
"description": "What-if: share of attacks escalating into a regional war, %",
"minimum": 0,
"maximum": 100
},
"wide_share_pct": {
"type": "number",
"description": "What-if: share of regional wars escalating into a wider war, %",
"minimum": 0,
"maximum": 100
},
"scenario_factor": {
"type": "number",
"description": "What-if: factor F by which intensity changes per year in the extreme scenarios",
"minimum": 1,
"maximum": 10
},
"lang": {
"type": "string",
"enum": [
"en",
"ru",
"de",
"es",
"fr"
],
"description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}🟢get_forecast_history(series, from, to, lang)
Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.
Input Schema
{
"type": "object",
"properties": {
"series": {
"type": "string",
"enum": [
"attack",
"territory"
]
},
"from": {
"type": "string",
"description": "YYYY-MM-DD"
},
"to": {
"type": "string",
"description": "YYYY-MM-DD"
},
"lang": {
"type": "string",
"enum": [
"en",
"ru",
"de",
"es",
"fr"
],
"description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}🟢get_intelligence_assessments(country, dimension, limit, lang)
Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links.
Input Schema
{
"type": "object",
"properties": {
"country": {
"type": "string",
"description": "ISO code: EE LV LT PL FI SE NO DK NL GB DE US"
},
"dimension": {
"type": "string",
"enum": [
"military",
"hybrid"
]
},
"limit": {
"type": "integer",
"minimum": 1,
"maximum": 100
},
"lang": {
"type": "string",
"enum": [
"en",
"ru",
"de",
"es",
"fr"
],
"description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}🟢get_sources(type, country, query, limit, lang)
The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text.
Input Schema
{
"type": "object",
"properties": {
"type": {
"type": "string",
"enum": [
"intel",
"research",
"method",
"forecast"
]
},
"country": {
"type": "string"
},
"query": {
"type": "string"
},
"limit": {
"type": "integer",
"minimum": 1,
"maximum": 60
},
"lang": {
"type": "string",
"enum": [
"en",
"ru",
"de",
"es",
"fr"
],
"description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}🟢get_other_forecasts(lang)
Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corrections.
Input Schema
{
"type": "object",
"properties": {
"lang": {
"type": "string",
"enum": [
"en",
"ru",
"de",
"es",
"fr"
],
"description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}🟢get_changelog(type, limit, lang)
Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).
Input Schema
{
"type": "object",
"properties": {
"type": {
"type": "string",
"enum": [
"data",
"model",
"ui",
"fix"
]
},
"limit": {
"type": "integer",
"minimum": 1,
"maximum": 100
},
"lang": {
"type": "string",
"enum": [
"en",
"ru",
"de",
"es",
"fr"
],
"description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}🟢get_methodology(lang)
Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.
Input Schema
{
"type": "object",
"properties": {
"lang": {
"type": "string",
"enum": [
"en",
"ru",
"de",
"es",
"fr"
],
"description": "Language of text fields (default en)"
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}Community
Evidence